The cost of coffee crisis
By Katie Trahair-Davies
For someone who loves visiting coffee shops with friends and views a chai latte as a justified motivator for arduous visits to the library or essay-writing sessions, the rising cost of a cup of coffee has long been something of an impediment to my rapid consumption of hot beverages. Each time I venture to buy a coffee and stand waiting for my takeaway cup to be handed to me over the till, I idly browse the menu board of whichever café I find myself in, wistfully thinking of a time when I would have been greeted with a Drinks menu with an average price of £2.50. Suddenly when a medium latte makes a £4 dent in your bank account, you have to start thinking about whether the quality and enjoyment of purchasing a coffee is really worth this price.
Whilst I have memories of a well-made coffee only costing at a maximum of £3, the average price has slowly crept higher and higher over the past few years, at first unnoticed, and now unignorably so. Whilst an increase to a price of £3.50 was somewhat excusable and did not truly turn heads, the recent shift to a coffee costing on average around £4 feels significant; this price appearing to be the breaking point for public opinion to realise that our beloved and cheap coffee breaks are becoming an expensive habit.
For me, the price of a drink from a chain coffee shop should never warrant such prices. Places such as Costa used to be a cheap place where my friends and I could study or grab a drink from on long journeys, but now their prices are just as (if not more) expensive than a drink from an independent café, where perhaps an increase in prices are more obviously reflected in the quality of their coffee, and the justified struggles of running a small business. For instance, although the price of a large coffee in Durham’s own Flat White can also rack up a bill of over £4, this appears still more reasonable than coffee of a lesser quality from a Highstreet chain. Comparably, in 2024 Costa’s drinks were up by an average of 91p, a sharp increase that reflects no change in the quality of the product provided. Interestingly, when contrasting the prices of Chapter’s hot drink selection between a 2023 menu and their current prices, there has been a very minimal increase – with this café still offering the most reasonably priced independent coffee in all of Durham. This lack of continuity across coffee inflation begs the question of what is justifying these rising prices?
There are many factors that have contributed to this price growth, affecting both bags of coffee brought in stores, and a cup of coffee in a café. Firstly, there has been a huge rise in the wholesale price of coffee beans themselves – with the price of arabica beans (the most popular variety) rising by more than 80% in 2024. This pressure at the root of the supply chain has meant that coffee has become a more valuable commodity, thus increasing the costs for cafes themselves to produce coffee for their customers. Furthermore, this has also been reflected in supermarket price increases of a bag of coffee: it has been reported that the price of Nescafé’s original instant coffee increases by 15% year on year within UK stores.
This pressure at the root of the supply chain has meant that coffee has become a more valuable commodity, thus increasing the costs for cafes themselves to produce coffee for their customers.
Although these rising prices within the UK are in part due to the ongoing cost of living crisis, causes of this problem can also be attributed to the increased pressure on agricultural stocks due to the climate crisis. Bad harvests caused by extreme or changing weather patterns are leaving stocks depleted, whilst demands only continue to increase with our growing global population. For instance, as the largest supplier of arabica beans to the international coffee market, Brazil is heavily relied upon by European countries to fulfil their supply demands. However, huge droughts plagued the country throughout 2024, leaving stocks of coffee beans in short supply, in turn hiking prices of this now more precious commodity higher and higher for international consumers. Similarly, Vietnam, who is the largest producer of robusta beans, has also suffered from climate change induced drought – leading to a three year long (and continuing) deficit of these beans. If the climate crisis continues at its current severity, then a cup of coffee is only going to become more expensive and coveted, as these extreme weather events will make the collection of coffee beans a more volatile agricultural practise.
In conjunction with this, the growing price of a cup of coffee can be seen as symbolic of the other significant economic pressures that the UK has faced in recent years. The country’s cost of living crisis has seen the price of everyday purchases rise exponentially, with the British Retail Consortium estimating in January 2025 that prices will continue to rise by an annual rate of 4.2% by the year’s end. Although this inflation is perhaps most commonly reported amongst essential household purchases – such as groceries, petrol and energy bills – the rising cost of small pleasures is an important symptom of this economic strain. Especially in a country where the winters are long and cold, small pick-me-ups such as a hot drink or a café visit were once staple remedies for the winter blues. However, with large portions of the population unable to sufficiently warm their homes, many individuals have had to cut back on their budget for unnecessary purchases. Furthermore, when little treats become not so little in price anymore, the burden of these economic changes become more apparent in every aspect of day-to-day life.
…inflation is perhaps most commonly reported amongst essential household purchases – such as groceries, petrol and energy bills – the rising cost of small pleasures is an important symptom of this economic strain.
There are many arguments that could be made for the rebranding of this economic woe as a chance to rewire our societal mindset on the small practises of consumerism, making the occasions one does buy a coffee out as a more special and appreciated moment. However, this altered perception of ‘mindful consumption’ often only thinly veils the fact that a simple hot beverage is becoming increasingly unaffordable for many people. Whilst for some students this may just mean that they purchase one less coffee on their way to lectures each week, for others in the university or wider community this price inflation may mean losing a crucial lifeline of warmth during the winter. The loss of affordable treats should not be underestimated in the effect it may have on the population’s wellbeing.
Image by Mark Prince for CoffeeGeek.
