Echoes of the Past? What the AfD’s Surge means for Germany’s future

By Matthew Brookes

It is easy to look at the headline numbers from the recent German Bundestag election and see the success of AfD as the future end of German democracy. The concern from these elections should not just come to the performance of the AfD but increasing polarisation of young German adults to the more radical edges of both the left and right. The three establishment parties that have been a staple of German democracy since the Second World War, the centre-left SPD, the centre-right CDU, and the centrist FDP, won only 49% of the popular vote. The anti-establishment parties – the far-right AfD, left-wing Die Linke, the Greens, and BSW – won 42% of the vote combined.

This increasing polarisation of German voters is a very recent trend, and it is born out the politics of a post-Covid world. The echo chambers on the different corners of social media have been intensified in the reaction to the war in Ukraine, the last decade of US politics, and so-called “alpha male” influencers such as the Tate brothers, which has created an environment for anti-establishment parties across the democratic West. These factors are felt even more strongly in Germany, where the AfD’s promotion of ‘traditional family values’ is popular with right-wing voters. There is an increasing feeling amongst young German men that so-called ‘woke’ policies have gone too far, and the right has stoked fear of large-scale immigration of Muslim men. The economic stagnation and political gridlock have seen progressives and leftists turn away from the SPD and the Greens, turning to parties such Die Linke and BSW, who are far more radical in their approach to systemic inequality and social issues. 

This increasing polarisation of German voters is a very recent trend, and it is born out the politics of a post-Covid world

This polarisation is particularly noticeable in the divide between the voting choices of young people as opposed to the older voters, and also in the divide between young men and young women. Amongst under-25s, Die Linke, the AfD, and the Greens were the most popular parties, with a combined vote share of 55%. In comparison, with the over-70s the CDU and the SPD continued to dominate, with 69% of the vote between them. This divide between young and old voters isn’t unique to Germany or this election, but in other nations such (such as last year’s British or American elections) the divide is often between the centre-left in younger voters, like Labour or the Democrats, and the centre-right, such as the Tories or Republican, instead of between anti-establishment and establishment parties. In Germany, there is also a gender divide amongst those under 35, with women under 35 largely voted for Die Linke, the SPD and the Greens, while their male counterparts voted for the AfD, the CDU and Die Linke as their top three preferences. 

This gender divide could become a grave issue for German politics and society in the next decade. The voting patterns of the majority of young men to right-of-centre parties is based in a feeling that feminism has gone ‘too far’ and that young men are now being put into a box by society and are unable to be masculine, a narrative that can be found online being pushed by influencers such as the Tate brothers. Young women still feel the far more tangible effects of a society built for the benefit of men and are inclined to actively vote against the parties that promote the ideals of Andrew Tate. 

This new government needs to remind its younger citizens of the reasons why their forebearers rejected radicals

The rejection of establishment parties by younger voters in Germany has not yet had any major impact on German politics, with the complete failure of the centrist liberal FDP to get above the 5% threshold being the only significant fallout from the increasing polarisation for now. As the centre-right CDU will likely enter a coalition with the centre-left SDP, it is obvious that this new government needs to remind its younger citizens of the reasons why their forebearers rejected radicals and why the establishment parties became established, through their competent government, reasoned and experienced handling of serious issues, and the effectiveness of modern German democracy. If they fail to achieve this it could lead to further polarisation in Germany, the radical demands of the AfD will not be sidelined for much longer, and this mounting political tension may come to a head. 

Image: Dominik Türk via Pexels