The Crude Truth: the importance of the Strait of Hormuz
By Charlie Hogermeer
After taking office on the premise of “no new wars”, the Trump administration has now engaged in a new conflict. A temporary ceasefire has been agreed between Iran and the US, but both powers imposed a dual blockade upon the Strait of Hormuz, which controls 20% of the world’s oil supply. This has caused a significant hit to the global economy, which has become reliant on sustained oil transportation. The disruption has driven up food and fuel prices globally, which has caused stark opposition to the war. According to one YouGov poll, only 28% of Americans support the war, signalling growing discontent.
Peace talks, brokered and mediated by Pakistan, have shifted locations and collapsed repeatedly, displaying significant tension between the powers. The US desires free commercial transportation through the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran is using as leverage to prevent further US military involvement in Iran. There have also been historic disputes over the Iranian right to nuclear weapons, which is opposed by both Israel and the US. The Iranian regime has repeatedly used rhetoric calling for the destruction of Israel and has funded terrorist groups like Hamas and Hezbollah. As the US sees Israel as a key ally, it attempts to maintain their interests in negotiations.
”Both powers imposed a dual blockade upon the Strait of Hormuz, which controls 20% of the world’s oil supply”
The negative economic impact of oil disruption has been slightly reduced, due to the Petroline, an East-to-West oil pipeline in Saudi Arabia, which has acted as an alternative route to the Strait of Hormuz. According to The Economist, 7 million barrels of oil per day have been transported to Port Yanbu on the Red Sea. Without this pipeline, the world economy would likely be in an even worse state. This can be seen as a promotion for renewable energy, which is not bound by the same geopolitical constraints.
Two countries affected by the crisis are China and India, both of which have turned to buying more reliable and readily available Russian oil. India’s imports of Russian oil increased by 90% in March, according to the Times of India. This is damaging for Ukrainian interests, as the Western oil sanctions have simply shifted Russian oil exports to the east.
According to the Human Rights Activists News Agency, an estimated 3636 non-combatants have died in the conflict, which has seen criticism from Pope Leo XIV, who prayed the nations would seek peace for the betterment of the civilian population. This call for peace was met by remarks from the President, who claimed Leo was “catering to the radical left”. US Vice President JD Vance claimed the Pope should be “careful…when discussing matters of theology”. This has sparked condemnation from some Catholics, who believe the President is undermining the Pontiff’s theological authority.
”According to one YouGov poll, only 28% of Americans support the war, signalling growing discontent”
There has been controversy regarding the fluctuation of oil prices. Financial Times reports indicate that there have been allegations of a pattern of shorts against oil prices, which have come minutes before presidential announcements. A report by The Guardian found that major fossil fuel firms are set to make an extra $234 billion by the end of 2026. Historically, oil markets fluctuate significantly during wars, and no verified instances of insider trading have been found. However, critics remain distrustful, and it is under investigation by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Oil appears to be a consistent theme in Trump’s foreign policy. Paired with the current crisis, The US carried out Operation Absolute Resolve, which led to the capture of ex-Venezuelan President Maduro, who led a country with the largest proven oil reserve in the world. Another example is the repeated and insistent interest in purchasing Greenland, which has an abundance of natural resources. The US administration claims its motivations for the war lie in regional and global stability. Critics would argue that Trump’s main motivation lies in oil, rather than in global security.
During the war, public discussion regarding Trump’s involvement in the Epstein files has rapidly decreased. Once a major talking point, the global crisis has seemingly put the issue on the back burner.
Image: Modis Land Rapid Response Team, NASA GSFC via Wikimedia Commons
