Paris Climate Change conference: it’s time to act on our promises
Scientists have reported that 2015 was the hottest year in the historical record, breaking the mark set by 2014. It seems as if global warming, if it wasn’t something that was in our psyches before, is now forcing itself there. Having taken a few tentative steps into 2016 it is now time to assess how the Paris Climate Change conference and the good work done in November should shape our future.
The Paris agreement was the first to include requirements from all parties to report regularly on their emissions effort meaning no discrimination for developing countries. Arguably the most important development was to reaffirm the goal of limiting global temperatures well below 2 degrees Celsius and urging efforts to limit the increase to 1.5 degrees. To put the importance of these numbers into perspective, at up to a 2 degree change, the world can expect desertification, severe agricultural loss, loss of island nations, and the extinction of animals. At 3 degrees the amazon rainforest begins to collapse and instead of being the world’s absorber of CO2, it may start emitting it.
So what do the changes mean for us in 2016? Well obviously if you live on a small low-lying island in the middle of the Pacific Ocean then the new agreement offers hope. However as UK citizens, in the short-term, the deal is unlikely to have a huge impact on UK policies. We already have a Climate Change act which binds us to reducing our emissions by 80% by 2050. We are part of the current EU pledge which promises to cut Europe-wide emissions at least by 40% on 1990 levels by 2030.
Numbers are all very well but we have to understand that these targets cannot be discarded. According to the UN the national pledges to cut emissions, made ahead of the summit, were likely to leave the world on course for warming of at least 2.7C. The new agreements to limit warming to 2C will only be achieved if countries actually make good on their promises. This is not an issue that can be dealt with once and forgotten about. This is something that needs to be constantly checked and renewed.
Even the most supportive observers of the conference said it is still a very tall order for the world to deliver on the measures which will result in limiting the global temperature rise to ‘well below’ 2C. If the policies are to work, financial departments around the world will have to put decarbonisation at the heart of their fiscal policies. If the UK’s Climate Change Act is to be met then it is estimated to require £10 billion a year in green energy subsidies by 2030. In the government’s own emissions projections, published on 18 November, there is a shortfall in the UK meeting its 4th carbon budget. Change arguably involves a continued shift in the philosophies of a number of political parties; a continued commitment to ‘green’ policies. This is where lobbyists come in.
Michael Jacobs, of the New Climate Economy organisation, when talking to the BBC, said, “The new ambition to keep global warming to only 1.5C will require more action, certainly after the next decade”. He went on to say it was “unlikely” that the Conservative government would choose to do this. A key part of the summits decisions, although the pledges are not legally binding, was to impose a five-year review process to encourage further emissions cuts. Although this is helpful in keeping countries accountable to their promises we cannot wait till 2020 to find out how baldy we are doing. 2015 was the year the world committed to saving itself, let 2016 be the year they act on it.
Photograph: IIP Photo Archive via Flickr (Public Domain)
