Govern today, independence tomorrow: the changing nature of nationalist parties
By Jack Hughes
For the first time, Wales and Scotland are being run by pro-nationalist first ministers: John Swinney for Scotland and Rhun ap Iorwerth of Wales. On the 7th of May 2026, Scotland and Wales went to the polls to elect their representatives for the Scottish Parliament and the Welsh Senedd, respectively. The Scottish National Party (SNP) failed to win the electoral majority it had hoped for; it did, however, secure 58 seats and remained the largest party in the chamber. In Wales, Labour lost its 27-year hold of power, with Plaid Cymru celebrating 43 seats, becoming the largest party in the Senedd. The fall of support for the Conservatives and the Labour Party is impossible to ignore, whilst Reform UK is reaping the rewards.
In the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, 55.3% of the voters chose to vote against independence in the referendum, which saw the largest turnout in over a century. The First Minister at the time, Alex Salmond, campaigned for Scotland to leave the United Kingdom, with independence being the biggest priority on their manifesto. However, in the SNP’s recent manifesto, there is a deeper focus on improving the NHS and fixing the cost-of-living crisis, rather than an independence referendum. In 2025, John Swinney said, “when the SNP wins a majority, we [will] deliver a referendum on Independence”. Their failure to reach a majority, with also fewer votes, may indicate a second independence referendum is unlikely.
In the SNP’s recent manifesto, there is a deeper focus on improving the NHS and fixing the cost-of-living crisis, rather than an independence referendum
Since 1999, Wales has been a Labour stronghold – the collapse of support is a major blow to the party. These struggles are encapsulated by the First Minister, Eluned Morgan, losing her own seat in the Senedd. Plaid Cymru has recently had a growing presence in Wales, working with Labour in coalition governments numerous times; however, it was never the largest party, which meant it often failed to push through key policy legislation. In the 2026 election, Plaid Cymru had 5 key priorities: health and social care, childcare, the Welsh economy, schools, and child poverty. Welsh independence was not mentioned as a key priority; for nationalist parties, independence is clearly not a current priority. Plaid Cymru may be attempting to gain the trust of the voters by governing effectively before suggesting an independence referendum. They gained support from many former Labour supporters, possibly due to their similar centre-left policies, rather than their former centralised mission of independence.
Welsh independence was not mentioned as a key priority; for nationalist parties, independence is clearly not a current priority
In the 2024 General Election, the SNP lost 38 parliamentary seats and lost its place as the third biggest party in Westminster. Labour was the biggest beneficiary, soaring from 2 to 37 Scottish MPs. However, less than two years later, Labour failed to win in the Scottish Parliamentary elections and lost seats, from 20 down to 17. Voters who had moved away from the SNP in 2024 may have returned after being displeased with Labour’s performance in Westminster. With a clear indication in both Wales and Scotland that former Labour voters are moving away to nationalist parties, it may be increasingly difficult for Labour to hold onto its majority at the next general election if current trends continue.
This power vacuum, its creation also catalysed by the unpopularity of the Conservative Party, has led to a major surge in support of Reform UK. Reform UK are the 2nd largest party in both Wales and Scotland; however, in Scotland it is joint 2nd with the Labour Party at 17 seats. With 34 seats in Wales, Reform UK is the official opposition. This can be considered a monumental achievement from a party which had zero seats at the last Senedd election. This suggests that the voters have lost confidence in the two traditional parties, mostly down to U-turns from the national government. With voters moving to minor parties unpredictably, the tumultuous times of British politics are not over yet.
Image credit: Matthew Horwood via Wikimedia Commons
