A COP-Out? Why Science No Longer Leads Climate Negotiations
By Lucy Higson
The international fight against climate change took off at the Rio Earth Summit in 1992, when 154 nations signed up to the UNFCCC, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The UN established an annual meeting called the ‘conference of the parties’ or COP, gathering the community of nations as a forum for co-operation, for hearing the science behind climate change, and for measuring progress.
Since then, there have been some ambitious COPs. At COP 3 in 1997, the Kyoto Protocol committed countries to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions to 5% below 1990 levels. In 2015, 196 states signed the Paris Accord at COP 21, aiming to hold the average global temperatures to no more than 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and to target 1.5 °C. The following 5 years were a period of great optimism. Many governments increased their carbon reduction pledges and many large corporations pledged to achieve net zero carbon. Yet, major powers failed to commit to the agreement. Although the US had initially signed, it withdrew from the Paris Accord in 2020, rejoined in 2021, and withdrew again in January 2025.
In November 2025, the 30th COP returned to Brazil, and in November 2026 we are due another COP to be held in Turkey. So, what have 30 years of international climate cooperation achieved? Many people would say not much, and certainly not enough. The COP model seems incapable of fulfilling its promises, as reports suggest we have already missed the 1.5°C target.
Fossil fuels are the leading contributor to global warming, but the science is often ignored or undermined at COP summits
Science tells us that fossil fuels are the leading contributor to global warming, but the science is often ignored or undermined at COP summits. COP 29 and COP 30 are clear examples in how science can become the victim of ignorance, economic motivation, and political power during COP.
The country which hosts each COP has a significant influence upon the thematic focus, as it sets an agenda for the summit and chairs the negotiations. Azerbaijan is one of the world’s oil-rich nations, with fossil fuels making up 90% of its export income and was the country which hosted COP 29. During his opening address, the President of Azerbaijan called his country’s oil and gas reserves a ‘gift from God’. He stated that countries should ‘not be blamed’ for having these reserves or bringing them to the market because ‘the market needs them, the people need them’. The selection process for COP’s hosting countries appears problematic when COP is hosted by oil-rich countries with economic incentives to protect the use of fossil fuels.
Further, representatives of fossil fuel industries are often included in COP summits. They can make up a nations’ lists of delegates, represent trade associations, or lobbying groups. However, reports indicate that this is at the expense of representations of science or nations at risk of global warming. The KBPO coalition reported that the proportion of fossil fuel representatives was at its highest level in COP 30, outnumbering the representatives of nations who are at significant risk from climate change. Fossil fuel lobbyists were reported to have received 60% more passes to COP 30 than delegates from the 10 most climate vulnerable countries.
Calls for reform have been heard from major voices inside the UN. At COP 29, Simon Steill, the executive secretary of the UNFCCC, and António Guterres, the UN secretary general, wrote an open letter to all states who are members of COP. The letter called for a ‘fundamental overhaul’ of COP, also calling for a permanent scientific advisory body to amplify the voice of science.
The consequences of climate change are increasing around us
Recognising the insufficiencies of its predecessors, COP 30 was intended to be a summit focused on action rather than compromise. But, perhaps unsurprisingly, there was no mention at all of the term ‘fossil fuels’ in the final formalised agreement of COP 30. UCL researchers described the settlements as largely insufficient in keeping the international community on track to commit to the Paris Agreement. This is yet another demonstration that when science is pushed to the background, COP fails to produce effective change.
In May, the UK experienced a record-breaking heatwave, with temperatures reaching 35.1°C in London, 2.3°C above previous records. Whilst a minor event compared to the devastating natural disasters experienced elsewhere, it serves as a reminder that the consequences of climate change are increasingly around us. Science must lead climate summits so that effective climate action does not face any further delay.
Image: Xuthoria via Wikimedia Commons
