Election Predictions

By Aisha Sembhi

Politics Editor 

We asked a few of our contributors to give us their predictions on the outcome of the 2020 US election:

This brash new politics could cost Trump the election’ 

With the US election looming, Biden appears to be on the home straight to victory, as his broad-church approach proves attractive to the majority of the electorate. It is important to still be wary though, as those who voted for Trump in 2016 have had little in their way to challenge their political allegiance, if anything becoming more enshrined within the Trumpisms and the new-Republican political rhetoric. This brash new politics over the past four years may cost Trump the election, driving away traditional Reagan Republicans, who will be drawn to Biden’s socially-liberal, more inclusive politics. 

 

‘I think Biden has a relatively secure chance of victory’ 

Whilst it is difficult to confidently assert a prediction for the upcoming US election, especially due to the inevitable unreliability of polls, I think Biden has a relatively secure chance of victory. A key factor in my opinion is his clear success in the two recent presidential debates, in which he has managed to remain focused and direct in contrast to Trump’s blatant lies and hyperbole. I also think a potential decrease in political apathy amongst younger votes will secure more votes for Biden; however, whether this happens in ‘swing states’ or not is debatable. 

Charlotte Grimwade 

‘No matter which man sits there, however, it will be a victory for the interests of global capital’ 

Perhaps Democratic ambitions of gaining Florida, Iowa or Arizona (let alone Texas!) seem somewhat too overconfident in the limitations of polling, but so long as Biden can hold Nevada and win back Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, he is over the 270 electors mark and into the Oval Office – at least theoretically. No matter which man sits there, however, it will be a victory for the interests of global capital. The excessive utilisation of lesser-evilism on both sides has already bolstered tolerance in the neoliberal-far right dichotomy – both ends of which being unabashedly friendly to the corporate lobby and military-industrial complex. 

 

The key electoral college states seem to be turning blue, but the reality might still be red’ 

Donald Trump: Definitely a depressing thought, and controversial too given recent opinion polls, but I think this election will be completely different to any before. During coronavirus the state has touched the everyday lives of Americans for the first time in decades – that combined with an already politicised environment could mean a much higher turnout that usual. Many of those casting a ballot for the first time are likely to feel left behind by the political classes – and those types won’t be voting Biden. The key electoral college states seem to be turning blue, but the reality might still be red. 

 

‘A Republican surge on election day is more probable than we would like to admit’ 

After the electoral upset of 2016, the outcome of the 2020 election can only be described as unpredictable. It is entirely feasible to suggest this election will be determined by the electorate’s willingness to turn out to vote in person, something which may disproportionally benefit Trump. Whilst polls swing in favour of Biden, the Trump administration attack on mail-in votes means that the safety of this lead is questionable – a Republican surge on election day is more probable than we would like to admit. And of course, the impact of Covid-19 means in-person voting may see a dip among those who are more cautious which, given the general popular attendance of Trump’s in-person election rallies, may prove fatal to Biden’s campaign. 

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