A dangerous tipping point for the Azerbaijani-Armenian conflict

By Lara Kovandova

The world is witnessing the worst outbreak of hostilities between Azerbaijan and Armenia in decades. The recent conflict was sparked a month ago over the disputed ethnic Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan but controlled by Armenia. A patchwork of religions and ethnicities, it is greatly significant and meaningful to both countries. Considered their Jerusalem, both the peoples of Armenia and Azerbaijan perceive it as central to their identity. 

Nagorno-Karabakh was seized from Azerbaijan by Armenian forces in 1994 after a bloody war that lasted years and swept across both countries – though the roots of the conflict run deeper, and can be traced back to the First World War. After decades of living peacefully side by side under the Soviet Union, the eruption of the war caused an estimated 20,000 deaths and the displacement of hundreds of thousands of people: a dramatic episode in the countries’ recent history. 

Though the war was halted by a ceasefire, the grievances on both sides were left unaddressed, and tensions simmered. The loss of Nagorno-Karabakh was a traumatic experience for Azerbaijan, and the ceasefire left 600,000 Azerbaijani stranded away from their homes. On the other hand, Nagorno-Karabakh, mainly populated by ethnic Armenians, is vulnerable to attacks from Azerbaijan. The threat Karabakh Armenians felt from Azerbaijan was a central reason for Armenia’s occupation of the area in the first place. 

On September 28, 2020, Azerbaijan launched an offensive. Trying to restore national pride and statehood, it is attempting to recapture Nagorno-Karabakh, its lost territory. Now, both countries have declared martial law and have mobilised their troops. 

Over 700 Armenian soldiers have already been killed in an effort to slow the Azerbaijani advances

Although clashes over the disputed territory have been regular since the end of the bloody ethnic war that ended in 1994, the scale of the newly-ignited conflict is greater, more threatening, and has the potential of dragging in Turkey and Russia. Turkey is an important ally to Azerbaijan in the region, and has explicitly expressed its support in the Azerbaijani struggle. On October 5, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish president declared “we stand by [the Azerbaijani] in their holy struggle until victory.” The generous support may have emboldened Azerbaijan in its military offensive, as this is the first time that Turkey is offering not only political support, but also military. Russia, reluctant thus far to get involved in the struggle, is nevertheless bound by a defence pact with Armenia, pledging to defend it if its sovereignty were under attack.

The current fighting differs from the one in the 1990s. Now, it is marked by intense artillery and armed ‘suicide drones’ capable of tremendous calamity. Destructive, they are also able to document their kills – which is exploited for propaganda use. The footage capturing large-scale destruction of enemy tanks is disseminate in the media in an effort to take back control of the narrative. Over 700 Armenian soldiers have already been killed in an effort to slow the Azerbaijani advances. At the time of writing, Azerbaijan has not disclosed records of its military death toll. The continued conflict threatens to subject civilian areas close to the front lines to disarray and death. 

So far, diplomatic attempts by the international community to reach a definitive ceasefire and curb the latent devastation of a war have failed, with truces consistently violated. A continued escalation of the humanitarian catastrophe that is unfolding may usher in a more dangerous, irreversible phase of the conflict with no possibility of a return to negotiations. 

Image: by WikimediaImages via Pixabay

One thought on “A dangerous tipping point for the Azerbaijani-Armenian conflict

  • THIS WAR WAS ABOUT DRONES !

    DRONES AND ROBOTS AND AI WILL MAKE CONVENTIONAL MILITARIES OBSOLETE !

    Take the example of the Swarm attack by ISIS on Russian forces,in Syria.They attacked and exited at no loss to ISIS.The principle is that,you cannot
    kill what you cannot see.Radars cannot see the drones – and even if the drone has a set trajectory,AI can be used to alter it,every 2 seconds,and then drop it below
    radar coverage.You can’t use an ADS to shoot a drone – it is the surest way to bankrupt a nation.

    With AI and multiple warheads type splitting of the drone,at the terminal phase,there is no way to stop the drones.

    The entire American ADS failed w.r.t the Yemeni Swarms on Saudi oil refineries. Y ? 1st they failed to detect,and then you cannot shoot them with missiles –
    as if the missile misses,the refineries are history (besides the absurd cost of this defense).Even Anti-Aircraft fire is of no use,as the drones cannot be seen
    (even in the day),and using AI,the drone can change height or speed or hide behind an obstacle.

    Even drone armies cannot be used to kill drones – as the drone armies cannot reach the target location – for the simple reason,that they will not
    know the target before hand.Even if drones at stationed at an airbase – on perpetual mode,that will only aid in reconnaisance.

    Using EW and DEW,means that all the ICs and Communication networks of the “attacked entity” are also likely to be jammed and paralysed !

    THE INDIANS WERE DOING ONLINE YOGA AND LOOKING FOR PIA BALLOONS,AND THEREFORE – THEY HAVE BEEN ATTACKED BY 2 DRONES YESTERDAY –
    WHICH BOMBED THEIR IAF AIRBASES!

    https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-probes-suspected-use-drones-blast-jammu-air-base-officials-2021-06-27/

    HOW CAN THE WORLD USE INDAIN VAXES ? HOW CAN INDIA HAVE AN AIRFORCE ? HOW CAN THESE PEOPLE BE A PART OF THE QUAD ?

    This is another false flag ! A drone came from AK, 10 kms into Hindoosthan,via the IB/LC and all the pandoos of the BSF,ADS and the IAF were sleeping !

    The attack was at NIGHT – so there was NO VISUAL SIGNATURE.

    Y did the Drones miss ? Did they come to blow a hole in the roof of a building ? How could they miss the Choppers and Jets ? What about the Fuel Dumps ?

    UAVIED = IED Force Multiplier ! A small payload can cause more damage than a ICBM – as the payload can be targetted TO A SPECIFIC EXPONENTIAL TARGET (like ammo dumps,fuel dumps,jets loaded with fuel and ammo ….)

    Sat pictures of the IAF base would be known to the Mujahideen,and so,the GPS coordinates WILL GUIDE THE DRONE TO THE TARGET ! So Y did the drone miss ?

    So the Drone was NOT GPS turned,and was a basic drone ! Y will a basic drone be used, unless it be tracked to drop payload at a target ? The only STEALTH WAY to do the same – is via a camera, which transmits at set intervals (so that IAF jammers,do NOT intercept the transmission)

    The fact that the Drone entered the IAF base and was on ATC zone, means that the handler could see the target ! AND SO Y DID THE HANDLER DROP THE CHARGE AT THE WRONG TARGET ? There was no drone recovered by the Indians – SO THE DRONE DID NOT MALFUNCTION – and so,Y was the payload dropped ?

    It is simple ! It was a false flag ! Done by RAW and MOSSAD,to fund the DRONE DEFENSE TECHNOLOGY,TO BE SOLD BY ISRAEL,TO INDIA ! THE ISRAELI TECHNOLOGY IS USELESS FOR INDIA! THE DRONES USED BY THE KASHMIRI FREEDOM FIGHTERS IN INDIA,ARE SMALL DRONES, WHICH HAVE NO RCS AND NO INFRA RED OR THERMAL SIGNATURE – AND CARRY A VERY SMALL PAYLOAD

    Hamas DRONES were large with heavy payloads,and slow,with a set trajectory !

    Indian Drones are based on the “IED Force Multiplier” concept ! The key in India is TARGET SELECTION – then getting the drone to HIT the target,is easy meat – especially at Nights with cloud cover and a dark moon ! If the small drones fly even at 10000 feet – radars will
    not detect the same !Tree Top cruising is the last option,for the mujahideen !

    So the Israeli technology will not work, in India !

    The Solution to jammers used by the Indians, is saturation drones,at the same time but attacking from different coordinates.In addition,once the drones are 50 -100 meters from the target – all radio frequency and visual transmission needs to be cut off, and the handler has to use time and distance to plan the drop – by 1 last transmission, at an unknown frequency !

    Once the drone RCS is minimised,then drones at a height of even 500 feet,will be invisible to radar and the human eye – even in the day ! Then just one last visual relay from the drone is required – to release the payload – like the WW2 bombers – were bombs were manually dropped from 20000 feet – AND THIS IS 500 FEET ! And if this happens at NIGHT – then it is Gala Freedom! KAMIKAZE DRONES ARE NON-STOPPER !

    Sooner rather than later,the UAVIEDs will reach the Naxals and the North East !

    Take the example of Goa,IAF base in Dabolim Commercial Airport,Fuel Dumps for IAF,Navy and Railways – visible to the eye,Ports and Ships at Dock – visible to the eye,packed tourists in the open spaces,oil and naptha tankers docked at high seas ….

    India has TO READ THE WRITING ON THE WALL ! Give Freedom to Kashmir and partition India !

    The Indians DID NOT have the sense to have a ABR, in the form of a drone,at a height of even 1000 feet to scan all projectile movement – as a drone,has a SET TRAJECTORY AND PATH PATTERN AND A SET SPEED .Even then,the ABR MIGHT detect the drone,BUT WILL NOT BE ABLE TO STOP THE DRONE.NO ADS WORKS AT 50 TO 300 FEET – AS IT IS TOO CLOSE TO MISS.dindooohindoo

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