LIVE: US Election 2016

07.50 – There you have it. Donald Trump President Elect. Get some sleep now folks. This is going to be very interesting!


 

07.45 – Fox News and New York Times declare Donald Trump next president of the United States. According to sources, Clinton has already phoned Trump to concede defeat. Donald Trump to give victory speech imminently.


 

07.30 – Curious events. Remaining votes has risen from 1% to 11% in Pennsylvania. Could be the reason the Democrats are yet to concede defeat.


 

07.05 – Clinton campaign manager refusing to accept defeat until all votes are counted. You’d be forgiven for thinking the story may well have some chapters left…


 

05.45 – It has to be said – this is the most astonishing result in American political history. 


 

05.30 – polling closed in one more state. 

Nevada – Projected for Hillary Clinton.

Electoral College: Clinton – 215. Trump – 244.


 

05.05 – Palatinate Politcs is calling a Donald Trump win


 

04.50 – polling closed in one more state.

Georgia – Projected for Donald Trump.

Electoral College: Clinton 209. Trump 244. 

It would be difficult not to call for a Trump win from here.


 

04.40 – polling closed in one more state. 

Washington – Projected for Hillary Clinton

Iowa – Projected for Donald Trump

Electoral College: Clinton 209. Trump 228.


 

04.30 – polling closed in two more states. 

Utah – Projected for Donald Trump.

Florida – Projected for Donald Trump.

Electoral College: Clinton 197. Trump 222. 

The White House getting ever closer for Donald Trump.


 

04.15 – polling closed in one more state. 

Oregon – Projected for Hillary Clinton

Electoral College: Clinton 197. Trump 187. 


 

04.10 – polling closed in one more state.

North Carolina – Projected for Donald Trump

Electoral College: Clinton 190. Trump 187. 


 

04.00 – polling closed in six more states. 

California – Projected for Hillary Clinton

Hawaii – Projected for Hillary Clinton

Idaho – Projected for Donald Trump

Electoral College: Clinton – 190. Trump – 172

Light relief for the Clinton campaign. Unlikely to last.


 

03.45 – polling closed in one more state.

Colorado – Projected for Hillary Clinton 

Electoral College: Clinton – 131. Trump – 168.


 

03.35 – polling closed in one more state. 

Virginia – Projected for Hillary Clinton

Electoral College: Clinton – 122. Trump – 168. 


 

03.25 – polling closed in one more state. 

Ohio – Projected for Donald Trump

Electoral College: Clinton – 109. Trump – 168.

Trump is pulling away. The most optimistic Clinton supporters must be worried now.


 

03.10 – polling closed in two more states. 

Missouri – Projected for Donald Trump

New Mexico – Projected for Hillary Clinton

Electoral College: Clinton – 109. Trump – 150. 

Mood at Clinton HQ is getting ever nervier.


 

02.50 – Trump camp is jubilant but Trump’s path to the White House has by no means completely opened up.


 

02.35 – polling closed in one more state. 

Louisiana – Projected for Donald Trump 

Electoral College – Clinton – 104. Trump – 137. 


 

02.00 – polling closed in one more state

Connecticut – Projected for Hillary Clinton

Electoral College – Clinton 104. Trump 129.


 

02.10 – As it stands now Donald Trump will be happier candidate. Clearly the Clinton campaign will be feeling extremely anxious. Florida to be announced any time now.


 

02.00 – polling closed in seven more states 

Texas – Projected for Donald Trump

Kansas – Projected for Donald Trump

North Dakota – Projected for Donald Trump

South Dakota – Projected for Donald Trump

Wyoming – Projected for Donald Trump

Nebraska – Projected for Donald Trump

New York – Projected for Hillary Clinton

Electoral College – Clinton – 97. Trump – 123


 

00.25 – polling closed in one more state

Alabama – Projected for Donald Trump

Electoral College – Clinton – 68. Trump – 66. 


 

00.15 – polling closed in two more states 

Tennessee – Projected for Donald Trump

South Carolina – Projected for Donald Trump

Electoral College – Clinton – 68. Trump – 57


 

01.00 – polling closed in 20 more states

Pennsylvania – No result 

Oklahoma – Projected for Donald Trump

Mississippi – Projected for Donald Trump

Maryland – Projected for Hillary Clinton

Rhode Island – Projected for Hillary Clinton

Delaware – Projected for Hillary Clinton

Illinois – Projected for Hillary Clinton

Massachusetts –Projected for Hillary Clinton

New Jersey – Projected for Hillary Clinton

District of Columbia – Projected for Hillary Clinton

Electoral College: Clinton – 68. Trump – 37. 


 

00.30 – polling closed in 3 more states

North Carolina – No result

Ohio – No result

West Virginia – Projected for Donald Trump

Electoral College: Trump – 24. Clinton – 3. 


 

00.00 – Polling closed in six states

Virginia – No result

Georgia – No result

Indiana – Projected for Donald Trump

South Carolina – No result

Kentucky – Projected for Donald Trump

Vermont – Projected for Hillary Clinton

Electoral College: Trump – 19. Clinton – 3.


Palatinate Politics Predictions:

  • Mason – Politics Editor: I think Trump might edge it – despite how close the polls have been there will be a great number of people who will never admit to voting Trump. Not even to their wife or kids. Also, the number of first time voters who may well vote to Trump will have no interest in taking part in polling.
  • Kate – Deputy Politics Editor: The anomaly that is Trump’s staggering success has – among other things – given the Clinton campaign undue reason to relax, and we haven’t seen her portray that convincing and hopeful vision of the future that saw Obama win in 2008. Clinton will win – yet not by much. Don’t underestimate the power of anonymity in the polling booth; Trump will do well, but Clinton will edge it.
  • Joseph – Deputy Politics Editor: Hillary Clinton has fought a coherent and intelligent campaign. Whilst it is clear that no candidate has it ‘in the bag’, Donald Trump’s rhetoric will cause him more problems than it will solve. Ultimately, I predict a comfortable victory for Clinton.

 


 

10-11pm GMT

  • Exit polls will start to emerge, which are usually quite accurate but bear in mind how wrong they were about Brexit and the General Election – will Trump benefit from what we know as the ‘Shy Tory’ effect whereby people refuse to admit they voted for him, even though they did?

Midnight

  • Virginia – the first of the swing states to declare a result. It’s likely to go blue, and the margin of victory will likely set the precedent for the rest of the night. Additionally, there is a House of Representatives race going on, with the Republic incumbent being challenged. This will be an interesting one to watch as it may indicate the impact of Donald Trump on Senate and Congressional races
  • Georgia – Mitt Romney beat Obama by 8% in Georgia in 2012, and this state is likely to stay red. However, worth noting how large the non-white turnout out as the state has a growing black population, which has helped Clinton keep it in play
  • Indiana (Republican), South Carolina (Republican), Kentucky (Republican) and Vermont (Democratic) are all expected to be called around this time, although none of them are seen as battleground states

12:30am

  • North Carolina – A key battleground state; Obama won here in 2008 but lost in 2012. The state itself it quite divided between Democratic cities such as Charlotte and Raleigh, but more rural Western areas tend to go Republican. If Trump wins it doesn’t bode well for the rest of the night.
  • Ohio – as goes Ohio goes the nation! Ohio is both a swing and a bellweather state -no Republican has ever one the Presidency without winning Ohio, and it’s very, very difficult to see how Trump will win overall if he looses Ohio. Clinton needs to win big in the cities to make up for the rural vote for Trump, so keep an eye on turnout in the main cities – Columbus, Cincinnati and Cleveland.

1am

  • Florida – Trump HAS to win here – if he doesn’t, there is no way he can win the Presidency. Obama just won in 2012 (50.01% v 49.13%) and recent polling has it going for Trump, who has spent a lot of time campaigning here.
  • New Hampshire – Clinton is most likely to carry New Hampshire, but there is also an important Senate race here, with both candidates tied. If the Republicans win the Senate seat it suggests Trump may not have affected races lower down the ballot paper
  • Pennsylvania, Delaware, Illinois, Maine, Columbia, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Maryland and Rhode Island are all expected to declare for Clinton at this point, with Missouri, Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma and Tennessee declaring for Trump, however none of these are battleground states

2am

  • Michigan – likely to go blue but Trump has been campaigning very hard here; if he’s doing well it is likely to reflected in the result here

3am

  • Arizona – will probably declare for Trump, but does have an increasing number of Latinos who are trying to turn it into a swing state
  • Minnesota should declare for Clinton around now, with Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Kansas and Texas declaring for Trump

4am

  • Should be very clear by now if Hillary is doing well or not; if she’s going to have a historic sweep we’ll find out during this hour
  • Colorado – Likely to declare for Clinton, although Trump has had a late surge. Only has 9 electoral votes
  • Iowa – the battle state that Trump is most likely to win – if he’s looses here it’s going to be a clear win for Clinton overall

5am

  • Utah – a typical Republican stronghold, a loss here would be a huge blow to Trump but is possible

6am

  • Nevada – The last swing state to be called in the UK, we should know by now who has won. Nevada is battleground state with polling indicating that it’s going to be a very close race, however early voting is leaning heavily in Clinton’s favour.

Photograph: DonkeyHotey via Flickr

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